bp’s Energy Outlook 2024 presents an analysis of future global energy demand through two scenarios: Current Trajectory and Net Zero.
These scenarios explore the potential evolution of the energy system up to 2050, influenced by policy, technology, societal pressures, financing and geopolitics.
The Current Trajectory scenario outlines a pathway where existing climate policies and global decarbonisation pledges shape energy demand.
This scenario predicts a moderate decline in energy demand, with carbon dioxide emissions peaking in the mid-2020s and reducing by around 25% from 2022 levels by 2050.
Annual gains in energy efficiency average 2.1%, and global primary energy demand grows at an average annual rate of 0.2%.
In contrast, the Net Zero scenario envisions significant reductions in carbon emissions, aiming for a 95% decrease by 2050.
This scenario assumes tighter climate policies and shifts in societal behaviour supporting energy efficiency and low carbon energy adoption.
Under Net Zero, energy demand declines, with annual energy efficiency gains averaging 3.4%, leading to an average annual decrease of 1.1% in global primary energy demand.
Emerging economies, excluding China, are expected to see varying energy demand trends.
In the Current Trajectory, demand grows by about 45% over the period, while in Net Zero, demand peaks in the early 2030s and falls by around 10% from 2022 levels by 2050.
China and developed economies are projected to have more muted energy demand growth due to slower economic growth and greater energy efficiency improvements.
bp’s analysis indicates that the future of global energy demand will significantly depend on the pace of energy efficiency improvements and the implementation of decarbonisation strategies.
