Today, the UK’s electricity system operator (ESO) has released its 2024 Future Energy Scenarios (FES), placing significant emphasis on ‘electric engagement’ as a cornerstone pathway towards achieving a net zero energy system in Britain.
The report, titled ‘ESO Pathways to Net Zero’, marks a shift from scenarios to focused pathways, offering strategic options for decarbonisation.
NESO’s Director of Strategy and Policy, Claire Dykta, underscored the importance of ‘electric engagement’, highlighting its potential to drive consumer engagement and reduce energy demand through smart technologies such as electric heat pumps and vehicles.
Ms Dykta emphasised the critical need for decisive action within the next two years to ensure a fair, affordable, sustainable and secure energy system by 2050.
Ms Dykta highlighted NESO’s target to operate a net zero carbon electricity system for short durations by next year, with plans to achieve sustained operation throughout the 2030s.
The report examines multiple scenarios aimed at decarbonising the energy sector by 2050.
These scenarios, namely ‘Holistic Transition’, ‘Electric Engagement’, and ‘Hydrogen Evolution’, present distinct approaches to meeting the nation’s ambitious climate and energy goals.
Holistic Transition: This scenario proposes a comprehensive shift towards net zero through a balanced mix of electrification and hydrogen adoption.
It emphasises consumer engagement and smart technologies to enhance energy efficiency and grid flexibility.
Renewable energy sources play a significant role, with a phased reduction of unabated gas by 2036.
Electric Engagement: Focused on electrified demand, this scenario anticipates high levels of consumer participation in the energy transition.
Technologies such as electric heat pumps and vehicles are pivotal in reducing energy demand and enhancing grid flexibility.
Significant investments in electricity storage and interconnectors are necessary to support peak demand periods.
Hydrogen Evolution: This scenario highlights rapid advancements in hydrogen technologies, particularly in industry and heating sectors, to achieve net zero emissions.
Although consumer engagement is lower than in other scenarios, hydrogen adoption is crucial for heavy goods vehicles and industrial processes.
Energy efficiency measures are essential to manage costs effectively.
In addition to these pathways, the ESO includes a Counterfactual scenario to assess the implications of not meeting net zero targets.
The Counterfactual scenario outlines a future where decarbonisation efforts fall short, maintaining heavy reliance on natural gas across sectors like power and space heating.
According to this scenario, electric vehicle uptake is slower compared to pathways aiming for net zero.
