Global electricity demand is expected to increase by approximately 4% in 2024, rising from 2.5% in 2023.
This projected growth rate would be the highest since 2007, excluding the significant spikes following the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic.
The robust growth in electricity consumption is expected to continue into 2025, with an anticipated increase of around 4% again.
According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewable energy sources are projected to grow, with their share of global electricity supply expected to increase from 30% in 2023 to 35% in 2025.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is anticipated to account for roughly half of the global demand growth during this period, with solar and wind energy together contributing to as much as three-quarters of the increase.
Despite the rise in renewables, coal-powered electricity generation is unlikely to decrease in the short term due to strong demand in countries such as China and India.
Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions from the global power sector are expected to stabilise, with a slight increase in 2024 followed by a decline in 2025.
There are uncertainties, particularly regarding hydropower production in China, which if sustained, could reduce coal-fired power generation and emissions.
Several major economies are expected to see significant increases in electricity consumption, according to the IEA’s study.
India’s demand is forecast to rise by 8% in 2024, driven by economic activity and heatwaves, while China anticipates more than 6% growth due to industrial and service sector activities.
In the US, electricity demand is projected to rebound by 3% following a decline in 2023, influenced by economic growth and higher cooling demand.
The EU is expected to see a modest recovery, with a 1.7% increase after two years of contraction due to the energy crisis.
The use of air-conditioning remains a significant driver of electricity demand in many regions, exacerbated by intense heatwaves in the first half of 2024.
The IEA highlights the need for faster adoption of clean energy and improved grid infrastructure to ensure secure and reliable electricity supply.
The organisation also emphasises the importance of higher energy efficiency standards to mitigate the impact of increased cooling demand.
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