The National Energy System Operator (NESO) has released its Winter Outlook report for 2024/25, projecting a de-rated margin of 5.2GW, or 8.8% of expected peak demand during a cold spell.
This margin is higher than the 4.4GW (7.4%) forecasted last year and is the highest since the 2019/20 season, consistent with recent years.
The improvement is attributed to new interconnections, increased battery storage capacity, and more generation connected to local distribution networks, which compensate for the recent closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar, the last coal-fired power station in the UK, and other temporary reductions in generation capacity.
NESO’s assessment suggests sufficient surplus capacity throughout winter, though it remains ready to use standard operational measures, such as system notices, during periods of tight supply.
Craig Dyke, director of system operations at NESO, said: “As we publish our first Winter Outlook as the National Energy System Operator, it is positive to see that margins forecast for this winter are the highest since 2019/20.
“This is driven by a range of factors such as additional generation, increased storage capacity and new interconnection.”
