The impending closure of two Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear power stations in the UK is predicted to lead to higher wholesale electricity prices in 2027, potentially undermining the government’s promise to reduce energy bills by the end of the decade.
According to data from Cornwall Insight, wholesale electricity prices are expected to rise to £83/MWh in 2027, just after the AGRs are scheduled to close, surpassing the average £81/MWh suppliers paid in 2025.
By 2030, prices are forecast to only slightly decline to £77/MWh.
Analysts note that since wholesale prices significantly influence consumer bills, this trend poses a risk to government efforts to cut costs.
At the start of the decade, the UK operated eight nuclear power stations, contributing about 16% of its electricity generation.
Currently, three AGR stations have been decommissioned, with two more expected to close by 2026-27 and the remaining two by 2028-29.
Electricity demand is projected to increase by over 30% in the next five years, driven by the electrification of heating and transport.
