The EU and UK gas markets have seen a small respite after hitting 2024 highs last week. Although the situation has not changed much, improved weather forecasts and renewables as well as stable flows and increased LNG arrivals and send outs have shown the gas systems are capable of withstanding higher demand. EU storage levels are 87% full and although the withdrawal rate has been higher than the previous two years, weather conditions in Q125 will determine how much is left and therefore how summer 25 will look. Aside from weather forecasts, other supply risks are also being closely watched, such as the fate of remaining Russian gas flows across Ukraine. Fighting has intensified after US President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to hit military targets deeper inside Russia. Russia’s deal to transit gas via Ukraine expires at the end of the year, with no alternative arrangement yet agreed. US sanctions on Gazprombank, which handles payments for Russian gas by European customers, has also elevated the risk that those supplies may stop earlier.
